Climate roadmap
The climate roadmap assesses the development of emissions from electricity and district heating. According to the latest assessment, emissions from electricity and district heating are expected to turn negative in the 2030s.
There has been a clear shift in the energy industry’s outlook compared to the low‑carbon roadmap published four years ago. Continued investment in clean energy appears so strong that carbon neutrality will be followed by carbon negativity in electricity and district heating production as early as the 2030s. Reducing emissions below zero is based on phasing out fossil fuels, followed by carbon capture from the use of biofuels and waste fuels.
In 2024, emissions from electricity and district heating had decreased by 59 percent compared with 2015 levels. The phase‑out of fossil fuels continues at a rapid pace in both district heating and electricity production, leading to significant emissions reductions already well before 2030.
Carbon capture in both waste‑to‑energy facilities and biomass plants makes it possible to reduce the net emissions of the energy sector to zero, or even negative, by 2035.
Storing carbon or recycling it into new products
Carbon capture offers an additional means of achieving carbon neutrality and removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Currently, 28 Mt of biogenic carbon dioxide is generated in Finland, particularly in the forest industry, as well as in waste incineration and other energy production. This carbon dioxide can be captured and either permanently stored or used in various products as a substitute for fossil raw materials.
At present, storage is not economically viable. According to a study commissioned by the Finnish Climate Change Panel, the estimated total costs for capturing and storing a ton of carbon dioxide from industrial emission sources in Finland around 2030 range from approximately 120 to 240 euros, depending on the capture site. In Finland, plans emphasise the utilisation of captured carbon dioxide in the production of synthetic methane and methanol, which can be used as fuels and as raw materials for chemicals.
There are no geological formations suitable for permanent storage in Finland. Storage requires transport, for example to storage sites in the North Sea.
In Finland, several projects are underway to produce new products, such as fuels and chemicals, from captured carbon dioxide and hydrogen.
What needs to be done? Steps for decision-making
Finland constantly faces challenges in its economy, security, and environment, and the world of competition isn’t always fair. We need to excel in creating a favourable investment environment and leveraging our strengths. We do not succeed in a competition of state aid schemes.
We have many strengths, such as favourable wind conditions, vast land area, high expertise, reliable networks, digitalization, stable ground, and a cool climate. We cannot succeed in the energy transition alone, so we invite all parties to join forces and capitalise on our strengths. Let’s create the policy conditions for achieving excellence.
Finland – the best location for energy-intensive industry
Large quantities of substantial long-term investments are needed, but their profitability depends on the future direction of climate and energy policies and the choice of regulatory measures. Competitors attract investments with substantial state aid as well. Uncertainty slows down the energy transition and complicates investment financing.
Strengthening the market demand for climate solutions by setting targets and main guidelines for climate governance for the period 2030–2050 in the EU and nationally.
- Continue to expand and strengthen emissions trading, thereby avoiding regulatory measures such as national taxes or subsidies that increase investment uncertainty.
- Develop energy taxation towards a fossil-free energy era in a long-term manner. The energy transition should not be slowed down by taxing fossil-free energy.
- Adhere to the long-term course of energy policy and assess the impacts of changes over the long term.
- Accelerate investments by setting a total timeframe for permits and developing a comprehensive cross-administrative electronic service system.
Diverse production ensures global competitiveness
The energy system must be rapidly transformed to meet climate targets and remain competitive in a tough global market. Throughout this transformation, the system needs to remain reliable and affordable.
Ensuring that Finland maintains a diverse energy portfolio by safeguarding the operating conditions for all production methods that provide us with competitive advantages and energy security. Guide the selection of production methods by limiting their negative impacts, such as emissions and environmental effects.
- Treat nuclear power on par with renewable energy and enable the construction of small modular reactors in urban areas.
- Recognise the importance of hydropower under the Water Framework Directive and maintain the Water Act as the governing legislation for water use.
- Secure the utilisation of forestry and industrial by-products for electricity and heat production.
- Accelerate the construction of onshore and offshore wind power across Finland by streamlining zoning procedures and addressing constraints related to radar systems.
- Create value for captured carbon dioxide in the European market. Accept carbon dioxide derived from sustainable bioenergy and waste as raw materials for the production of synthetic fuels.
Integrated energy networks enable the energy transition and growth in well-being
The energy system is diversifying, requiring integration of new production, consumption, flexibility, and storage solutions. Significant opportunities arise from the growth in variable electricity production, hydrogen production, and waste heat utilisation, all of which require substantial energy transmission.
Provide an enabling environment for the energy grids, that promotes sustainability, innovation, and market flexibility. Strengthen and proactively build new electricity, gas and heat networks through a long-term regulatory framework to anticipate customer needs and take into account the decades ahead.
- Streamline procedures for grid siting and permitting.
- Ensure efficient and equitable construction of energy grids from the perspective of customers and operators.
- Develop a national strategy for clean gases (biogas, synthetic methane, and hydrogen) to strengthen gas grids as part of the future energy market and sector integration.
- Provide energy grids with the capabilities to serve as platforms for various energy forms, technologies, services, and sector integration.
Customer benefits are secured with fair market regulations
Customer needs and opportunities vary. Customers should be able to participate in energy markets and protect themselves from risks. Responsible development of the energy system requires consideration of social and economic impacts. Bringing customer-generated flexibility to the market benefits everyone.
Legislation is created to facilitate the supply of advanced energy products and services. Energy market rules are further developed towards openness, efficiency, flexibility, fairness, and clarity. Differences in electricity, heat, and gas markets are acknowledged.
- Ensure the cost-effective integration of flexibility across energy system components (electricity, heat, gas).
- Create a level playing field for district heating and on-site heating solutions. Use company-specific district heating emission scenarios in calculating emission factors for buildings. Streamline the use of waste heat through planning and permitting.
- Enable the offering of various pricing models to customers without unnecessarily increasing regulatory risks.
- Remove barriers to electrification and the adoption of other clean energy technologies, and support research and development of new energy technologies.
The energy sector needs its changemakers
The energy transition requires top experts and continuous renewal of skills. Both experienced professionals and new talent are needed to develop and create new solutions. Energy companies employ significant number of people, but the value chains in the sector can employ three times as many. Securing future top talent is essential for companies to succeed and enable this extensive employment.
Ensure financial investments in skills development. Seize job market potential of new tasks in solving the climate crisis. Ensure the renewal of skills at all levels of education.
- Improve proficiency in natural sciences and mathematics starting from primary school. This is the foundation for future top expertise.
- Create and enable multidisciplinary skills and interdisciplinary approaches at all levels and fields of education.
- Secure that there are enough education and training positions available, and that they are regionally comprehensive, to have enough skilled technicians, product developers, digital experts, or nuclear physicists to meet the needs of the energy transition.
The climate roadmap is part of a broader energy vision
Finnish Energy’s latest Climate Roadmap is part of a broader vision for a successful energy future for Finland. The vision presents two alternative development pathways extending to 2040. In the first scenario, The Persistent Performer, Finland meets its international climate commitments and the EU’s energy targets but does not fully capture the greatest growth opportunities. In the second scenario, European Champion of the Energy Transition, Finland embarks on a strong growth trajectory, leverages clean electricity and hydrogen produced from it to expand export industries, at the same time ensures the achievement of climate targets and safeguards biodiversity.
In the vision, the future is built in particular on the growth of wind, solar and nuclear power, heat recovery, hydrogen and electricity networks, a strong position for customers in energy markets, and the use of captured carbon dioxide as a raw material.
Our experts on this topic
Climate policy, emission trading system (EU ETS)